The economics of falling populations, A shrinking global population ---
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2021-04-02 16:19:02 UTC

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The economics of falling populations
A shrinking global population could slow technological progress

Finance & economics
Mar 27th 2021 edition

Mar 27th 2021
Bubonic plague killed between one and two thirds of Europeans when it
struck in the 14th century. Covid-19, mercifully, has exacted nothing
like that toll. Its demographic impact, however, is likely to be
significantly larger than the nearly 3m tragic deaths so far attributed
to the coronavirus thanks to an associated, worldwide baby bust. Births
fell by about 15% in China in 2020, for example, while America recorded
a 15% drop in monthly births between February and November of last year.
As a consequence, the pandemic may have brought forward the projected
date of peak global population by as much as a decade—into the 2050s. A
shrinking planetary population might seem like a wholly welcome thing
given the world’s environmental challenges. But fewer people may also
mean fewer new ideas, yielding a very different sort of future than
optimists tend to imagine.

Humankind did not attain a population of 1bn until the 19th century, but
the total then grew rapidly. A second billion was added by the 1920s,
and nearly six more in the hundred years since. Plenty of fretting has
accompanied this explosion; “The Population Bomb”, a book by Paul
Ehrlich published in 1968 (between billions three and four), warned of
looming global famine. Most projections before the pandemic, however,
suggested that global population would plateau in the latter half of the
21st century. Some analysts have argued that our numbers will not just
stabilise but decline. In “Empty Planet”, a book published in 2019,
Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, two Canadian journalists, wrote that
as fertility rates fall—a clear trend across rich and emerging
economies—they tend ultimately to sink below the replacement rate of 2.1
children per woman. Nearly half the world’s people now live in countries
with fertility rates below replacement levels. Barring an unforeseen
demographic detour, global shrinkage looms.
2021-04-02 17:15:36 UTC
Post by a425couple
This shit comes back into vogue every generation or so.

Never mind that European birth rates have been falling since the 1860s.

This so-called clarion call appears about once a generation and then drops
down the memory hole for another thirty years or so. Back in the 1920s the
budding Eugenics movement promoted a wave of paranoia regarding "race
extinction". It's hard to read these old newspaper articles about "birth
dearth" and keep a straight face. Example: Alarmed by a declining birth
rate, Swedish prognosticators in 1928 declared that unless their women
started having one baby after another, by 1980 there would be no more
Swedes (!).

The birth-control-to-race-extinction myths, like Nostradamus' "prophecies,"
surface about once a generation, make their headlines, and are forgotten
again until someone tries to foist them onto the next generation...
2021-04-02 22:01:46 UTC
"Birth control" is a funny euphemism. More accurately, conception prevention, or birth prevention. Birth control is what an OB-GYN does.

Modern contraception was revolutionary, and unprecedented in history before now. Historically, the world's women have had lots of babies. The world, especially the West, is degenerating. Negative fertility rates are literally degenerate. It is not business as usual.

WW3 soon. http://icescape.org/Happening.html

We go full circle. After the skies clear and the lava cools, men and women will begin having babies again in earnest, just like every other normal, healthy animal on earth.

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