Discussion:
Secret 2-stage-to-orbit "Blackstar" Spaceplane.
(too old to reply)
d***@hotmail.com
2006-03-06 00:37:57 UTC
Permalink
According to:

http://aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_awst_story.jsp?id=news/030606p1.xml

The Pentagon developed a 2-stage-to-orbit Spaceplane called
"Blackstar".

What are the chances something like this really existed?

Wouldn't it be almost impossible to keep a program of this magnitude
under wraps for this long?
Matt
2006-03-06 22:21:23 UTC
Permalink
This falls under the heading of "You've gotta be kidding." No photos.
No documents. No budget trail. Not a single leak during the time the
program was supposedly operational, when it must have consumed billions
of doallrs and thousands of workers. Exactly one named witness. I
doubt every word in the article, inlcuding "and" and "the."

Matt Bille
Al
2006-03-06 22:55:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Matt
This falls under the heading of "You've gotta be kidding." No photos.
No documents. No budget trail. Not a single leak during the time the
program was supposedly operational, when it must have consumed billions
of doallrs and thousands of workers. Exactly one named witness. I
doubt every word in the article, inlcuding "and" and "the."
Matt Bille
And no one saw a launch, or re entry, or tracked it in orbit when everything
down to a space suit glove is tracked by everyone down to amateurs...

Al
Kyle Boatright
2006-03-07 02:00:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by Al
Post by Matt
This falls under the heading of "You've gotta be kidding." No photos.
No documents. No budget trail. Not a single leak during the time the
program was supposedly operational, when it must have consumed billions
of doallrs and thousands of workers. Exactly one named witness. I
doubt every word in the article, inlcuding "and" and "the."
Matt Bille
And no one saw a launch, or re entry, or tracked it in orbit when
everything down to a space suit glove is tracked by everyone down to
amateurs...
Al
Think about the F-117, Have Blue, Tacit Blue, Credible Sport and other once
classified projects that are now public knowledge. For instance, Have Blue
was flown in 1977, with the first F-117 flying in the Summer of 1981. The
aircraft reached operational status in the early 80's, and 3 squadrons were
in service by the mid 80's. There were more than a few rumors and odd
sightings during the period, but the actual confirmation didn't happen until
late 1988. That's 11 years from the Have Blue prototype's flight to the
announcement/confirmation of the F-117.

On the 2 stage to orbit system, there were numerous reports of "something"
returning to the West Coast at multi-sonic speeds. There were even seismic
reports which gave an indication of the craft's course and speed. Beyond
that, there were a handful of eyewitness reports.

This is all very reminiscent of the F-117's situation except for the fact
that the F-117 was eventually announced because operational realities drove
them to fly the it during the daytime. The military was smart enough to
announce its existance, knowing that if they flew it in daylight, pictures
and reports were going to get out anyway.

KB
Typhoon502
2006-03-15 15:36:24 UTC
Permalink
A little update...I talked to a personal connection to AW&ST, and he
was PISSED about this story being run. Said it was total hogwash,
nothing provable, and it was just lucky that no one in the industry had
come calling for proof. And I gathered that it is entirely possible
that more fantastic stuff like this might make it to print,
unfortunately.

i***@gmail.com
2006-03-07 12:18:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Al
And no one saw a launch, or re entry, or tracked it in orbit when everything
down to a space suit glove is tracked by everyone down to amateurs...
How do you know? The CIA will have put it down to an alien spacecraft.
As far as tracking is concerned there are a number of "unidentifiable"
launches each year.

This question about aliens is an interesting one. With what we know
about AI and the way Earth technology will develop the identification
of UFOs as alien spacecraft is completely impossible. Something like
Blackstar? Here we are crossing into the real of possibility if not
probability.
Ian MacLure
2006-03-07 05:33:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by Matt
This falls under the heading of "You've gotta be kidding." No photos.
No documents. No budget trail. Not a single leak during the time the
program was supposedly operational, when it must have consumed billions
of doallrs and thousands of workers. Exactly one named witness. I
doubt every word in the article, inlcuding "and" and "the."
What? You doubt thr article's articles?
Well, I never.

One comment I saw on-line made reference to a possible war load
of "Rods From God" ( Crowbar concept anyone ).

What would the terminal velocity of a long rod penetrator dropped
from orbit be I wonder. Something of the order of a crowbar in
size and wt ( 5 ft , 40-60lbs or so ).

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Dean A. Markley
2006-03-11 12:04:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ian MacLure
Post by Matt
This falls under the heading of "You've gotta be kidding." No photos.
No documents. No budget trail. Not a single leak during the time the
program was supposedly operational, when it must have consumed billions
of doallrs and thousands of workers. Exactly one named witness. I
doubt every word in the article, inlcuding "and" and "the."
What? You doubt thr article's articles?
Well, I never.
One comment I saw on-line made reference to a possible war load
of "Rods From God" ( Crowbar concept anyone ).
What would the terminal velocity of a long rod penetrator dropped
from orbit be I wonder. Something of the order of a crowbar in
size and wt ( 5 ft , 40-60lbs or so ).
That is an easy calculation: The terminal velocity is zero.

Dean
Ian MacLure
2006-03-12 04:25:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dean A. Markley
Post by Ian MacLure
Post by Matt
This falls under the heading of "You've gotta be kidding." No
photos. No documents. No budget trail. Not a single leak during the
time the program was supposedly operational, when it must have
consumed billions of doallrs and thousands of workers. Exactly one
named witness. I doubt every word in the article, inlcuding "and"
and "the."
What? You doubt thr article's articles?
Well, I never.
One comment I saw on-line made reference to a possible war
load of "Rods From God" ( Crowbar concept anyone ).
What would the terminal velocity of a long rod penetrator
dropped from orbit be I wonder. Something of the order of a
crowbar in size and wt ( 5 ft , 40-60lbs or so ).
That is an easy calculation: The terminal velocity is zero.
Let me guess. You're an English major, right?
A simplistic calculation might take the potential energy at
orbital altitude and equate it to the kinetic energy at
ground level but that would present a result far too high
since it neglects friction and the effects of plasma on
the objects dynamics.

IBM

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Typhoon502
2006-03-07 15:15:53 UTC
Permalink
I remember the "mothership" accounts coming in over the years, usually
through the same sources (mainly online) that discussed the existence
or lack thereof of various black aircraft types. And it's entirely
plausible to keep it under wraps. Also, the "fuel breakthrough" that's
mentioned in the article for some reason makes me think about the
HAZMAT problems at Groom Lake, and wonder if that's related.
Al Dykes
2006-03-07 17:11:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Typhoon502
I remember the "mothership" accounts coming in over the years, usually
through the same sources (mainly online) that discussed the existence
or lack thereof of various black aircraft types. And it's entirely
plausible to keep it under wraps. Also, the "fuel breakthrough" that's
mentioned in the article for some reason makes me think about the
HAZMAT problems at Groom Lake, and wonder if that's related.
I was told by a friend in the Space bis that the demise of the
American commercial SST project (mid-70s ?) was a blow to a proposed
runway-to-orbit system for which it was to be the first stage.

I don't think I ever heard anyone else mention this. Was there any
truth to it?
--
a d y k e s @ p a n i x . c o m

Don't blame me. I voted for Gore.
Dave Deep
2006-03-07 19:26:31 UTC
Permalink
Actually it is feasable after all the Pegasus launch system is more or less
the same the only difference the AC first stage is subsonic, replace that
with an sst and you can carry a bigger payload or a higher orbit.

DD
Post by d***@hotmail.com
http://aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_awst_story.jsp?id=news/030606p1.xml
The Pentagon developed a 2-stage-to-orbit Spaceplane called
"Blackstar".
What are the chances something like this really existed?
Wouldn't it be almost impossible to keep a program of this magnitude
under wraps for this long?
John S. Shinal
2006-03-09 20:54:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by d***@hotmail.com
Wouldn't it be almost impossible to keep a program of this magnitude
under wraps for this long?
Not if the Lockheed Skunk Works was runing the program.
Expenses get billed to other projects, etc. Those guys are masters at
this sort of stuff.


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d***@hotmail.com
2006-03-10 04:30:03 UTC
Permalink
Here's an article critical of the whole "Blackstar" story:

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Blackstar_A_False_Messiah_From_Groom_Lake.html

Does this seem accurate?
i***@gmail.com
2006-03-10 17:26:31 UTC
Permalink
Yes. However there are still points to be considered.

1) Blackstar flew even if not very well and not to LEO.
2) Secret programs have a habit of being self perpetuating even if they
are not getting anywhere.

The thing that I find decidedely odd about both Blackstar, and also
Aurara is that hydocodes are now available which will simulate the
whole of the flight régime. You need not build a hypersonic airplane
to find out whether it would work or not. In fact you could have LH/LOX
in various combinations, try various combinations of Ram, Scramjet and
rocket. The combustion characteristics of hydrogen and oxygen are well
known.

Basically we need Peer Group Review and the best ideas. If we can
simulate to the position of - "Yes, we have a hypersonic plane which
goesc to LEO but we don't (yet) have the materials to build it." then
significant progress would have been made.

The lack of PGR is one of the main arguments against secret programs.
The F117 and B2 were successful up to a point. However they are
incredibly expensive, and moreover the WW2 radars (lower frequency)
would, ironically, detect them. What the B2 does (in effect) is to
force the adversary to have a network of lower frequency radars. Crazy
because that will in fact help his technology rather than ours!
Paul F Austin
2006-03-10 21:34:29 UTC
Permalink
<***@gmail.com> wrote

Basically we need Peer Group Review and the best ideas. If we can
simulate to the position of - "Yes, we have a hypersonic plane which
goesc to LEO but we don't (yet) have the materials to build it." then
significant progress would have been made.

The lack of PGR is one of the main arguments against secret programs.
The F117 and B2 were successful up to a point. However they are
incredibly expensive, and moreover the WW2 radars (lower frequency)
would, ironically, detect them. What the B2 does (in effect) is to
force the adversary to have a network of lower frequency radars. Crazy
because that will in fact help his technology rather than ours!

Not exactly. If RADAR stealth made aircraft absolutely undetectable, that
would be best. A near second best are techniques that prevent any
RADAR-guided weapon from gaining a fire-control solution. That's the case
even if HF surveillance RADARs are used as counter-stealth measures.
i***@gmail.com
2006-03-11 12:00:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul F Austin
Not exactly. If RADAR stealth made aircraft absolutely undetectable, that
would be best. A near second best are techniques that prevent any
RADAR-guided weapon from gaining a fire-control solution. That's the case
even if HF surveillance RADARs are used as counter-stealth measures.
A lot of weapons are guided by IR. Now stealth is indeed invisible
looking upward. Looking downwards it is not. It is thermodynamically
impossible to be stealty all round. What stealth has in fact bought you
(against a major enemy) is about 5 years of time. Against Al Qaida
simpler techniques will work. AQ cannot in fact even build a light
plane given the drawings so secrecy is pointless except against class
1.

There is not in fact a class 1 enemy on the horizon within a 5 year
timespan. Against class 1 you should be thinking of funamental research
into the further furure. This would effectively be AI in its various
forms.

Problem - The best researchers do not work for the miltary and would
want to work in a program where they could communicate and publish
freely. The same thing holds for FTL travel and zero point energy. Most
reputable theoretical physicists believe it to be impossible but thay
are never asked.
Jim Yanik
2006-03-11 14:05:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
Post by Paul F Austin
Not exactly. If RADAR stealth made aircraft absolutely undetectable, that
would be best. A near second best are techniques that prevent any
RADAR-guided weapon from gaining a fire-control solution. That's the case
even if HF surveillance RADARs are used as counter-stealth measures.
A lot of weapons are guided by IR. Now stealth is indeed invisible
looking upward. Looking downwards it is not.
I disagree;some cruise missiles are stealthy from above.I suspect the B-2
is stealthy from above,*perhaps not as much as from below*,but still a
greatly reduced RCS. There are degrees of "stealth",meaning how much radar
cross section an airframe has.Stealth is just to -decrease- the warning
time,not completely eliminate any return at all frequencies,or total
"invisibility".
Post by i***@gmail.com
It is thermodynamically
impossible to be stealty all round. What stealth has in fact bought you
(against a major enemy) is about 5 years of time. Against Al Qaida
simpler techniques will work. AQ cannot in fact even build a light
plane given the drawings so secrecy is pointless except against class
1.
There is not in fact a class 1 enemy on the horizon within a 5 year
timespan. Against class 1 you should be thinking of funamental research
into the further furure. This would effectively be AI in its various
forms.
Russia cannot be counted out on "fundimental research".
They currently do not have the funds to implement their technology,but that
could change.
--
Jim Yanik
jyanik
at
kua.net
Chad Irby
2006-03-11 14:23:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
It is thermodynamically
impossible to be stealty all round.
Not really.

"Stealthy" means a reduced sensor signature, not 100% invisible to radar
or infrared.

A system that absorbs or dissipates most of the radar or IR signal will
certainly be "stealthy" by the definition everyone currently uses.
i***@gmail.com
2006-03-11 20:14:43 UTC
Permalink
I am not saying that the B2 does not have reduced emissions. It is
simply that the B2 represents $1e9 per bird. The B2 is not based close
in so its sortie rate is limited. A billion might be worth it if the
thing were completely invisible.

A class 1 will have satellites and any B2 flight at altitude will be
seen from space. At 10000m there is not usually obscuring cloud. The
question is will iot take $1e9 to shoot a B2 down. Unlikely.

The best solution would be to have numerous cheap aircraft, swamp the
defenses and use AI to keep crews out of harms way.
Chad Irby
2006-03-11 21:21:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
I am not saying that the B2 does not have reduced emissions. It is
simply that the B2 represents $1e9 per bird.
Considering a lot of the commentary about how they fund project like the
supposed "Blackstar," you sorta have to wonder about some of the higher
program costs that have been mentioned over the last couple of decades,
and what sort of black funding was hidden in the recesses of the
accounting system.
Jim Yanik
2006-03-12 03:11:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
A class 1 will have satellites and any B2 flight at altitude will be
seen from space.
Do you REALLY believe that?
--
Jim Yanik
jyanik
at
kua.net
Eunometic
2006-03-11 10:06:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by d***@hotmail.com
http://aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_awst_story.jsp?id=news/030606p1.xml
The Pentagon developed a 2-stage-to-orbit Spaceplane called
"Blackstar".
What are the chances something like this really existed?
Wouldn't it be almost impossible to keep a program of this magnitude
under wraps for this long?
It's very plausible becuase its technically been possible to do so
since the late 1950s.

All it needs is a 'flyback booster'. A booster is given wings and an
undecarriage so that it can be flown back under autopilot and recovered
under remote control or instrument landing system. Werner von Braun
got busted trying to put a void into the Juipiter/redstone missile for
'stabillity reasons' in fact he was trying to sneak in space for
either a parachute recovery or to prepare the booster for flyback
recovery.

The wings and undercarriage are actually quite small for such a vehicle
becuase they do not need to support a loaded aircraft. First stage
would probably be a LOX (Liquid Oxygen) kersosene booster since
LOX/Keronsene engines have twice the thrust to weight ratio of LOX/LH
(cryogenic hydrogen) and the fuel is much denser.

Second stage could be either LOX/LH or LOX/Kero. The space shuttle
main engines work by preheating the fuel to cool the engines then
adding oxidiser to further heat and generate gases for the turbines of
the turbo pumps. The very hot exhaust of the turbo pump turbines is
then exhausted into the main combustion chamber. The reason for this
closed cycle is two fold firstly to to achieve high efficiencies and
secondly to achieve these at high pressures by regnerating the turbine
exhaust gases. Unfortunatly the stress on the engine turbines and
turbo pumps is appaling as is the chamber conditions and service costs
and life is limited and expensive.

A far better cycle is an expander cycle such as used in the Agena
engine which achieves an efficiency just as good as that of the Space
Shuttle Main Engines. The fuel is heated as it cools the combustion
chamber. The expansing gases then drive the turbines and are exhasted
into the combustion chamber. The turbines are aluminium and run at the
temperature of a tepid bath. The cycle is efficient, lightweight,
extremely durable and reliable. Unfortunatly chamber pressures are low
so such an engine would need an unrealistically large nozzle to
opperate effectively at seal level pressures. They work best a higher
altitudes. (perfect for a second stage).

Hence a two stage to oribit vehicle has many economic and technical
advantages.

Unfortunatly the military has really only been interested in orbiting
outsize loads (spy sats) while NASA was after the temporary one hit
glory of a moon landing and when it built the shuttle it thought it
needed USAF support. (Hence von Brauns incremental approach of
assembling a earth orbit to moon shuttle vehicle over several fully
resusable shuttle lauches). The space shuttle was compromised as a
fully reusable vehicle of high safety to achieve the USAFs high
orobital payloads and recovery requirements. The result is an unsafe,
expensive vehicle that is neither satisfactory or safe for manned
mission and civilian use and not satisfactry for military purposes
becuase of the restriction (mainly weather and safety related)

A two stage to orbit vehicle with a manned flyback booster and a fully
recoverable winged upper stage is eminently sane. It has been possible
since the late 1950s.
i***@gmail.com
2006-03-11 17:43:29 UTC
Permalink
A two stage to orbit vehicle with a manned flyback booster and a fully
recoverable winged upper stage is eminently sane. It has been possible
since the late 1950s.

Quite possibly. But it didn't work. The use of Boron is certainly not
sane. This may mean that you would need Peer Group Review to build it
and that a secret build led to mistakes by people not familiar with
space propulsion.
Chad Irby
2006-03-11 19:14:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
This may mean that you would need Peer Group Review to build it
You do realize, of course, that "Peer Group Review" as a design method
has resulted in some of the worst debacles in aviation history (and,
indeed, engineering as a whole)? It also make sure that whatever it is
that you're trying to do will end up being five times as expensive and
ten years too late.

On the other hand, some of the finest machines ever built have been
created by small, tight design teams that ignored what their "peers"
were doing. The entire Skunk Works stable, for example, or some of the
more recent "small" designs.

The fact that they *didn't use "Peer Group Review" as one of the
practices lends much more credence to the idea that this thing might
actually have worked.
i***@gmail.com
2006-03-12 11:51:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chad Irby
The fact that they *didn't use "Peer Group Review" as one of the
practices lends much more credence to the idea that this thing might
actually have worked.
A 2STO can work. In fact the original Shuttle was just that. It had
half the payload of the present Shuttle with NO solid fuel.

Go to 2.5km/s in a winged first (LOX/Kerosene) stage and LOX/LH has to
supply 5.5km/s to deliver the magic 8 required for LEO. With a specific
impulse of 4-4.5km/s this would give mass ratios (stage 2) or round
about 4. Yes it could work. New materials such as carbon fiber/ceramic
composites would reduce deadweight. There need be no tiles for example.

The critical article mentioned 3 points.

1) The use of Boron.
2) A lack of understanding of optics. Adapive optics is not needed to
look down.
3) Just touched on. Zero point energy and FTL.

All these would be quickly sorted out by PGR.
Post by Chad Irby
It also make sure that whatever it is
that you're trying to do will end up being five times as expensive and ten years too late.
An FTL system costs infinitely more. It should cost nothing
(dismissed). Oh I suppose there is a cost in dismissing it! All PGR
does is test whether your ideas are sound or not. The same thing as FTL
applies to adaptive optics.

One thing the article difd not mention was Aurora. Both teams seem to
have worked with no knowledge of each other. Aurora's propulsive syste,
is highly classified but it must be scramjets of some sort. Do they
work? If they do could Blackstar have used them?
Matt
2006-03-12 15:29:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Eunometic
Werner von Braun
got busted trying to put a void into the Juipiter/redstone missile for
'stabillity reasons' in fact he was trying to sneak in space for
either a parachute recovery or to prepare the booster for flyback
recovery. >>>

Your source for that, please?

Thanks,
Matt Bille
www.mattwriter.com
Chad Irby
2006-03-12 16:14:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
Post by Chad Irby
The fact that they *didn't use "Peer Group Review" as one of the
practices lends much more credence to the idea that this thing might
actually have worked.
A 2STO can work. In fact the original Shuttle was just that. It had
half the payload of the present Shuttle with NO solid fuel.
...and then Peer Group Review got in, they started adding on
requirements for their own little fiefdoms, and we ended up with, well,
what we got.

A few years later, they went to a much smaller team, got a machine that
did many of the same things for much, much less money, and used it for a
number of missions in secret. Apparently. And now the folks who would
have been running the "peer groups" are telling us it would never have
worked...
Post by i***@gmail.com
Go to 2.5km/s in a winged first (LOX/Kerosene) stage and LOX/LH has to
supply 5.5km/s to deliver the magic 8 required for LEO. With a specific
impulse of 4-4.5km/s this would give mass ratios (stage 2) or round
about 4. Yes it could work. New materials such as carbon fiber/ceramic
composites would reduce deadweight. There need be no tiles for example.
I've been wondering about the idea of ablative materials that could be
easily and cheaply applied in place of tiles. An inch or so of some
material that could be scraped off and sprayed on between missions, for
example (note the reentry shields for many of the early US missions,
which were fairly cheap epoxy resins and such).

Then there's the MOOSe system, which was an inflatable, single-man
reentry system. It was a bag for one astronaut, which was filled with
urethane foam from a canister. After the bag filled up, the astronaut
would orient himself correctly with a little gas jet motor, then fire a
chest-mounted reentry rocket. When he got low enough, he'd deploy a
parachute. The heat shield was only a quarter inch or so thick, but the
tests showed the heat wouldn't get through.

There's also the strong possibility of much higher payloads for
suborbital "skip" trajectories (like the Dyna-Soar), which could
minimize the thermal issues for more-standard materials.
Post by i***@gmail.com
All these would be quickly sorted out by PGR.
...or by a small team of really good engineers with a decent budget and
very few Pointy-Haired Bosses "reviewing" the operation. You know, like
the Skunk Works. Who were, apparently, the people who built this thing.
Post by i***@gmail.com
Post by Chad Irby
It also make sure that whatever it is that you're trying to do will
end up being five times as expensive and ten years too late.
An FTL system costs infinitely more. It should cost nothing
(dismissed).
Why do you keep bringing this silliness up, when nobody else does?
Post by i***@gmail.com
Oh I suppose there is a cost in dismissing it! All PGR
does is test whether your ideas are sound or not.
Not really. Peer Group review, in most of the US aerospace industry,
adds another couple of levels of bureaucracy to an already expensive
process (one level of reviewers, one level of admin to give the
reviewers some power to wield). Note the results of PGR in the early
development of the Shuttle, where it went from a simple "space truck" to
a big, complex gadget with significant crossrange capability (for the
Air Force) and a heavier carrying capacity (for the intel folks),
combined with a severely reduced operational tempo from its original
design.

Meanwhile, as I mentioned before, the most successful group of people
working on planes and spacecraft don't use PGR to any great extent.
i***@gmail.com
2006-03-12 20:00:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chad Irby
Post by i***@gmail.com
An FTL system costs infinitely more. It should cost nothing
(dismissed).
Why do you keep bringing this silliness up, when nobody else does?
Look there is abundant evidence from Janes and elsewhere about anti
gravity systems. Sure they don't work but they are there.

By the way what you describe is not Peer Group Review. PGR simply looks
at concepts to see whether they are sound or not. What you are
discussing is the overloading of requirements, this is something
completely different.

Let us say you have a 2STO which will put X Kg into LEO. It is sound at
X. Unsound at 2X. A commitee insists on 2X and a Shuttle emerges. PGR
will simply ask the question "is X sound". Is there a better way of
doing it. PGR does NOT ask for 2X. It may ask "Is the best way to get
2X up to have a shuttle, or is it to have 2 loads of X and get a robot
to bolt it together?

Peer Group Review is an academic process. Academics would without doubt
have said that doubling the payload would mean the cost going up ten
times.
Post by Chad Irby
...or by a small team of really good engineers with a decent budget and
very few Pointy-Haired Bosses "reviewing" the operation. You know, like
the Skunk Works. Who were, apparently, the people who built this thing.
During WW2 the best engineers worked on military projects. This is no
longer the case. I don't believe the Skunk engineers are the best. They
would have produced hardware which worked and was affordable.

The B2 worked but is not affordable. Nothing in the hpersonic/space
line works. It seems to be mostly vaporware.

Now even if the Skunk engineers are all experts (which I doubt) they
are not expert in every field. In recent years AI has gained in
importance. What is REALLY needed in Iraq. Short term - more Predators
- Nor Aurora or Blackstar. Long term more sophisticated AI with better
decision making capabilities. In fat what is needed in space is more
robots and fewer people.

I feel that secret decisions are being taken by a small group of
people. They often bear little relationship to real needs.
Chad Irby
2006-03-13 01:29:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
Post by Chad Irby
Post by i***@gmail.com
An FTL system costs infinitely more. It should cost nothing
(dismissed).
Why do you keep bringing this silliness up, when nobody else does?
Look there is abundant evidence from Janes and elsewhere about anti
gravity systems.
No, there's not. There's an occasional "NASA has a few guys working on
the fringes just in case" sort of article, but there's no real programs
like this outside of the imagination of a few loons.
Post by i***@gmail.com
Sure they don't work but they are there.
...and there's folks *thinking* about a lot of things, but no real work
on them, while there's actual evidence (sightings) of black-project
aircraft to support the Blackstar rumors.
Post by i***@gmail.com
By the way what you describe is not Peer Group Review. PGR simply looks
at concepts to see whether they are sound or not. What you are
discussing is the overloading of requirements, this is something
completely different.
Not when you're looking at a formal process like you want to implement.
Asking the guy from the next cubicle to look over your numbers isn't
"peer group review."
Post by i***@gmail.com
Let us say you have a 2STO which will put X Kg into LEO. It is sound at
X. Unsound at 2X. A commitee insists on 2X and a Shuttle emerges. PGR
will simply ask the question "is X sound". Is there a better way of
doing it.
Yeah - it's "Hey, Bob, how does this set of calculations look?"
Post by i***@gmail.com
PGR does NOT ask for 2X. It may ask "Is the best way to get
2X up to have a shuttle, or is it to have 2 loads of X and get a robot
to bolt it together?
...and unless you have a formal framework (including someone who bothers
to Capitalize Peer Group Review when talking about it), then it's just
some guys working on a project who ask some other guys to look things
over, not a formal process.
Post by i***@gmail.com
Peer Group Review is an academic process. Academics would without doubt
have said that doubling the payload would mean the cost going up ten
times.
...and that's exactly what happened.
Post by i***@gmail.com
Post by Chad Irby
...or by a small team of really good engineers with a decent budget and
very few Pointy-Haired Bosses "reviewing" the operation. You know, like
the Skunk Works. Who were, apparently, the people who built this thing.
During WW2 the best engineers worked on military projects. This is no
longer the case. I don't believe the Skunk engineers are the best. They
would have produced hardware which worked and was affordable.
...like the F-104, the U-2, the SR-71, et cetera...
Post by i***@gmail.com
The B2 worked but is not affordable. Nothing in the hpersonic/space
line works. It seems to be mostly vaporware.
...and the B-2 was not out of the Skunk Works - they were built by
Northrop Grumman's Military Aircraft Systems Division.
Post by i***@gmail.com
Now even if the Skunk engineers are all experts (which I doubt) they
are not expert in every field.
They don't have to be, all they have to do is know when they're running
outside of their normal expertise, and call in someone who is.
Post by i***@gmail.com
In recent years AI has gained in
importance. What is REALLY needed in Iraq. Short term - more Predators
- Nor Aurora or Blackstar.
Well, that's an opinion. That's also not addressing what we're talking
about, which happened a couple of decades back.
Post by i***@gmail.com
Long term more sophisticated AI with better
decision making capabilities. In fat what is needed in space is more
robots and fewer people.
...in other words, a lot of little projects without a huge bureaucracy
hanging over them. Like the guys who built the first drones.
Post by i***@gmail.com
I feel that secret decisions are being taken by a small group of
people. They often bear little relationship to real needs.
Well, you can "feel" all you want, but the record still shows that small
teams with lower levels of people looking over their shoulders keep on
getting the job done, while giant teams of folks with lots of oversight
keep making monstrous projects that come in a day late and a dollar
short.
Richard Lamb
2006-03-13 03:09:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chad Irby
short.
Peer group review is for Science, Chad.

Not for engineering.

Especially not for covert engineering.



Someone already quoted Kelly Johnsom.
Look him up.
http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/u-2a/u-2_kellys_rules.htm


Ok, pumpkin?
Chad Irby
2006-03-13 04:28:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Richard Lamb
Post by Chad Irby
short.
Peer group review is for Science, Chad.
Not for engineering.
_That's what I've been saying_. Tell it to the other guy.
Post by Richard Lamb
Someone already quoted Kelly Johnsom.
I didn't see the quote, but what the hey...
Post by Richard Lamb
Look him up.
I don't need to, I'm not the one who's into PGR as a religion. I'm the
one who was using the Skunk Works as an example of *not* using PGR.
Post by Richard Lamb
http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/u-2a/u-2_kellys_rules.htm
Ok, pumpkin?
Well, since you agree with me and all, sure.
i***@gmail.com
2006-03-13 09:08:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chad Irby
Not when you're looking at a formal process like you want to implement.
Asking the guy from the next cubicle to look over your numbers isn't
"peer group review."
Indeed not. PGR will however ask certain basic questions. Blackstar has
indeed been sighted, how fast it was going and whether it is capable of
the LEO speed of 8km/s are unknown. It would seem to be that Ariane and
Energia/Proton are proven and are cheaper than the shuttle per Kg.
Perhaps rather than trust Skunk, proven systems should be built under
license.
Post by Chad Irby
Well, you can "feel" all you want, but the record still shows that small
teams with lower levels of people looking over their shoulders keep on
getting the job done, while giant teams of folks with lots of oversight
keep making monstrous projects that come in a day late and a dollar short.
Very true, but a large team is not PGR either, it is simply a process
by which things come out in the open. Security it should be pointed out
is one of the biggest bureaucratic hinderences there is. Skunk
represents very much the large dumb team.

The other question concerns the integrity, and to some extent the
integrity of NASA. The Sutlle was billed bt their propagandists as the
era of cheap spaceflight. It in fact heralded the era of even more
expensive spaceflight. Twice Ariane which is in turn far more expensive
than the Russian systems. True the Russians have lower labor costs but
a Proton is still the cheapest solution taking that into account.

Personally I would abolish NASA and sack everyone in Skunk. I would
build Protons under license and rather than develop a spaceplane would
develop mass production technology to make Proton flights cheap and
expand the Predator fleet. Also build a new generation of miniaturized
unmanned aircraft.
Chad Irby
2006-03-13 15:49:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
Very true, but a large team is not PGR either, it is simply a process
by which things come out in the open. Security it should be pointed out
is one of the biggest bureaucratic hinderences there is. Skunk
represents very much the large dumb team.
As has been pointed out in other posts, this is exactly the *opposite*
of how the Skunk Works is set up.
Kyle Boatright
2006-03-14 02:34:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by i***@gmail.com
Post by Chad Irby
Not when you're looking at a formal process like you want to implement.
Asking the guy from the next cubicle to look over your numbers isn't
"peer group review."
<<<snip>>>
Post by i***@gmail.com
Personally I would abolish NASA and sack everyone in Skunk. I would
build Protons under license and rather than develop a spaceplane would
develop mass production technology to make Proton flights cheap and
expand the Predator fleet. Also build a new generation of miniaturized
unmanned aircraft.
Abolish NASA? Naah. Correct a lot of the problems with NASA - Yes! It has
too much bureacracy. Too much finger pointing when something *does* go wrong
(and when you push the technological envelope, things will go wrong). Too
much "help" from congresscritters.

As far as the Skunkworks, why in the world would you abolish it? Over the
last 50 years, it has proven to be one of the most efficient means of
accomplishing something in the field of military aviation.
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