Discussion:
US sends 6 bombers B52 to Diego GARCIA to prepare escalation of threat
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Byker
2020-01-11 18:30:26 UTC
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US AIR FORCE sends 6 bombers
B52 to DIEGO GARCIA in India Ocean...
to show more threats against IRAN ...
WHAT is next ?
I do not assume B-52 are fit to bomb Iran *directly*. Cruise missiles can
be launched from other sources.
Save for certain "stealth" operations, manned aircraft really don't need to
enter Iranian airspace. Drones and cruise missiles ought to suffice...
PhantomView
2020-01-12 02:19:09 UTC
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Post by Byker
US AIR FORCE sends 6 bombers
B52 to DIEGO GARCIA in India Ocean...
to show more threats against IRAN ...
WHAT is next ?
I do not assume B-52 are fit to bomb Iran *directly*. Cruise missiles can
be launched from other sources.
Correct. Irans most vital industries are relatively few. Cruise
missiles could whack a couple major refinery complexes and
industrial centers and basically paralyse the country. We
presume the Iranians know that. Cruse missiles can be
dropped from B-52s or fired from ships, subs or even trucks.
No way Iran could intercept enough of them to save their
vital assets.

Today however there were major anti-regime riots, fueled
by the week of lies about the destroyed airliner. Chants
of "Death to the Islamic Regime" were heard. There were
calls for the Ayatollah to resign. All this just days after the
"Death to America" riots. Weird. Maybe it is a sign that
Iran is coming apart from the inside, that all the charm of
living in a neo-9th-century Islamic universe has worn off.

We may never have to do anything. Iran looks like it will
crash and burn all on its own. Maybe a "Persian Republic"
will emerge.
Post by Byker
Save for certain "stealth" operations, manned aircraft really don't need to
enter Iranian airspace. Drones and cruise missiles ought to suffice...
Dave Smith
2020-01-12 18:10:44 UTC
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Post by PhantomView
US AIR FORCE sends 6 bombers
B52 to DIEGO GARCIA in India Ocean...
to show more threats against IRAN ...
WHAT is next ?
I do not assume B-52 are fit to bomb Iran *directly*. Cruise missiles can
be launched from other sources.
Correct. Irans most vital industries are relatively few. Cruise
missiles could whack a couple major refinery complexes and
industrial centers and basically paralyse the country. We
presume the Iranians know that. Cruse missiles can be
dropped from B-52s or fired from ships, subs or even trucks.
No way Iran could intercept enough of them to save their
vital assets.
Today however there were major anti-regime riots, fueled
by the week of lies about the destroyed airliner. Chants
of "Death to the Islamic Regime" were heard. There were
calls for the Ayatollah to resign. All this just days after the
"Death to America" riots. Weird. Maybe it is a sign that
Iran is coming apart from the inside, that all the charm of
living in a neo-9th-century Islamic universe has worn off.
Major anti regime riots?
They were tiny compared to the mourning/anti American gatherings last week.
George
2020-01-12 19:17:27 UTC
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On Sun, 12 Jan 2020 13:10:44 -0500
Post by Dave Smith
Post by PhantomView
wrote: US AIR FORCE sends 6 bombers
B52 to DIEGO GARCIA in India Ocean...
to show more threats against IRAN ...
WHAT is next ?
I do not assume B-52 are fit to bomb Iran *directly*. Cruise
missiles can be launched from other sources.
Correct. Irans most vital industries are relatively few. Cruise
missiles could whack a couple major refinery complexes and
industrial centers and basically paralyse the country. We
presume the Iranians know that. Cruse missiles can be
dropped from B-52s or fired from ships, subs or even trucks.
No way Iran could intercept enough of them to save their
vital assets.
Today however there were major anti-regime riots, fueled
by the week of lies about the destroyed airliner. Chants
of "Death to the Islamic Regime" were heard. There were
calls for the Ayatollah to resign. All this just days after the
"Death to America" riots. Weird. Maybe it is a sign that
Iran is coming apart from the inside, that all the charm of
living in a neo-9th-century Islamic universe has worn off.
Major anti regime riots?
They were tiny compared to the mourning/anti American gatherings last week.
They weren't 'sponsored' by the Iranian government
Dave Smith
2020-01-12 20:00:24 UTC
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Post by George
On Sun, 12 Jan 2020 13:10:44 -0500
Post by Dave Smith
Post by PhantomView
wrote: US AIR FORCE sends 6 bombers
B52 to DIEGO GARCIA in India Ocean...
to show more threats against IRAN ...
WHAT is next ?
I do not assume B-52 are fit to bomb Iran *directly*. Cruise
missiles can be launched from other sources.
Correct. Irans most vital industries are relatively few. Cruise
missiles could whack a couple major refinery complexes and
industrial centers and basically paralyse the country. We
presume the Iranians know that. Cruse missiles can be
dropped from B-52s or fired from ships, subs or even trucks.
No way Iran could intercept enough of them to save their
vital assets.
Today however there were major anti-regime riots, fueled
by the week of lies about the destroyed airliner. Chants
of "Death to the Islamic Regime" were heard. There were
calls for the Ayatollah to resign. All this just days after the
"Death to America" riots. Weird. Maybe it is a sign that
Iran is coming apart from the inside, that all the charm of
living in a neo-9th-century Islamic universe has worn off.
Major anti regime riots?
They were tiny compared to the mourning/anti American gatherings last week.
They weren't 'sponsored' by the Iranian government
True, but I have to think back to US media reports of the big
celebration where happy Iraqis were dancing around happily while an
American tank pulled down a statue of Saddam. They tried to make a lot
of propaganda points covering the joyful occasion. There must have been
at least a dozen Iraqis involved in the event. As things turned out,
they seemed to have been among the very few who glad to see the regime
do down.
Byker
2020-01-12 22:28:56 UTC
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Post by Dave Smith
Major anti regime riots?
They were tiny compared to the mourning/anti American gatherings last week.
Give it time:


Just getting' started:


I wonder how many demonstrators will be killed
this time?:


A. Filip
2020-01-12 18:40:46 UTC
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Post by PhantomView
US AIR FORCE sends 6 bombers
B52 to DIEGO GARCIA in India Ocean...
to show more threats against IRAN ...
WHAT is next ?
I do not assume B-52 are fit to bomb Iran *directly*. Cruise missiles can
be launched from other sources.
[…]
Correct. Irans most vital industries are relatively few. Cruise
missiles could whack a couple major refinery complexes and
industrial centers and basically paralyse the country. We
presume the Iranians know that. Cruse missiles can be
dropped from B-52s or fired from ships, subs or even trucks.
No way Iran could intercept enough of them to save their
vital assets.
Today however there were major anti-regime riots, fueled
by the week of lies about the destroyed airliner. Chants
of "Death to the Islamic Regime" were heard. There were
calls for the Ayatollah to resign. All this just days after the
"Death to America" riots. Weird. Maybe it is a sign that
Iran is coming apart from the inside, that all the charm of
living in a neo-9th-century Islamic universe has worn off.
We may never have to do anything. Iran looks like it will
crash and burn all on its own. Maybe a "Persian Republic"
will emerge.
Is Trump ready for a few months of "asymmetric whacking" in elections year?
IMHO It would be a strategy above Trump's "risk comfort level".
"Regime change" via riots in Iran in 2020 is not impossible but for sure
it is not the most likely scenario.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

"And the rules of the game are what you can do to him
*and what you can stop him from doing to you* ."
--" Ender's Game" (1985) by Orson Scott Card
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ender%27s_Game
--
A. Filip
| Watch your mouth, kid, or you'll find yourself floating home.
| (Han Solo)
Oleg Smirnov
2020-01-12 20:04:56 UTC
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Post by PhantomView
of "Death to the Islamic Regime" were heard. There were
calls for the Ayatollah to resign. All this just days after the
"Death to America" riots. Weird. Maybe it is a sign that
Iran is coming apart from the inside, that all the charm of
living in a neo-9th-century Islamic universe has worn off.
In Iran, the "Death to America" chants and the
protests against what some of them may consider
inefficiency or incompetence of their leaders
(and where the plane case may be a pretext) are
generally not mutually exclusive.
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